What the robotics numbers actually stand on
Continental's margin case leans on three levers, and they are not equally supported. A pitch deck can outrun the work unless somebody separates the measured from the modeled. This note does that for robotics, the lever with the most numbers behind it.
What is measuredTwo things. First, an operating independent's real P&L: a good one, already at about 12 percent net operating income on a run-rate near $19 million, with direct labor and burden at 60.9 percent of revenue and a 34.3 percent gross margin. Second, the bids and ERP records of a second operator: 415 bids, 147 of them Class A, with the hours on hard-surface rows separated from carpet and fixtures and multiplied out by frequency.
| Cut | Site GM today | After robots (70% capture) | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 accounts, teleop at $3/hr (July model) | 36.3% | 48.4% | +12.1 pts |
| 147 Class A accounts, full book | 34.4% | 45.6% | +11.2 pts |
| Whole real book | 34.2% | 43.4% | +9.2 pts |
| ERP-confirmed sites, high confidence (8) | 35.4% | 49.6% | +14.2 pts |
| Scrubber-billing accounts, high confidence (18) | 35.9% | 45.3% | +9.0 pts |
The reproduction against the locked workbook came within half a percent of the original full-capture lift. That gate passed.
What is modeledSeventy percent capture of hard-floor hours is a planning case; no live robot route has demonstrated it yet, and dust-mop work, edges, obstacles and mats stay human. Two dollars a machine-hour is a placeholder with no manufacturer quote behind it, and three dollars an hour of teleoperation is an input. Ten percent exception labor is an input too, and a harsh one: it is ten percent of the labor dollars removed. The savings only print after each subcontractor agreement is re-cut by the hard-floor share, which is assumed and has not been executed. And carrying a nine-point lift measured on one operator's contracts across to another operator's employee labor is one analogical step: the two sit at similar field intensity, but nobody has parsed the second operator's bids.
What Continental saysOn accounts that already bill a scrubber, and where the bid matches the ERP, robotics takes about nine points of cost out of the contract at 70 percent capture. Applied to a P&L that is already at 12 percent NOI, field labor goes from 61 to 52 percent of revenue. Pilot sites with a company machine on the floor can print closer to fourteen points. Those pilot accounts are a slice of the book, and the savings only print after each subcontractor agreement is re-cut.
What Continental will not sayThat profit goes from 12 to 71 per hundred dollars of today's revenue. Twelve to about thirty is the supported compound of robotics and the software overhead cut; the data layer on top of that is a thesis overlay, and it is presented as one.